Which states could be most influential in deciding the 2024 US presidential election?

As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election approaches, many American citizens and observers from the rest of the world are interested in seeing who the next person in charge of the White House will be.

The election process for the next president of the United States happens every four years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, and while there is still plenty of time to go, so much has already happened in the build-up to this year’s decision.

From Joe Biden dropping out of the race, to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, there have been plenty of newsworthy moments that have influenced the US presidential election 2024 odds. However, none of these are as essential deciders as swing states.

Certain states will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. In the United States, the president is not elected by a direct popular vote, but through the Electoral College.

Each state has a certain number of electoral votes, awarded based on the popular vote within that state. The candidate who wins the majority of these votes across the nation becomes the president.

Due to the winner-takes-all nature in most states, certain “swing states” or “battleground states” can tip the balance in a close election.

In this article, we take a look at three states that could be particularly influential in the 2024 election. Read on to find out more.

Pennsylvania

In recent elections, Pennsylvania has been a key battleground state, swinging between Republican and Democratic candidates. It played a critical role in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with narrow margins deciding the winner.

Given its diverse electorate, which includes urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as rural and suburban regions, Pennsylvania remains a crucial state for both Trump and Kamala Harris, who has made extra efforts to visit the state throughout her debate campaign alongside Tim Walz, the Democratic candidate for vice-president.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is another Midwest state with a history of swinging between parties. Like Pennsylvania, the Badger State was crucial in the last couple of elections, with extremely close results, which Biden won by a narrow 0.63% margin in 2020.

Wisconsin has ten electoral votes. It was a part of the so-called “blue wall” that supported Democratic candidates from 1988 through 2012. However, in 2016, Trump won the state by a margin of 0.7%, mainly due to strong support in rural areas. These tight margins indicate the state’s battleground status.

Arizona

Some of the biggest US States have changed their trajectory politically. Arizona has been trending toward becoming a battleground state in recent years, reflecting significant demographic changes. Traditionally a Republican stronghold, the state of seven million has become more competitive for Democrats.

In 2020, Biden narrowly won Arizona, becoming the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton, with a shift due to Arizona’s evolving demographics, particularly in fast-growing areas like Maricopa County.

Both parties will likely invest heavily in the state, recognising that its outcome could be decisive in political bets throughout the coming months.

Georgia

Over to the southeastern part of the US, Georgia has emerged as a critical battleground state, as the Empire of the South’s political significance is likely to grow even further in 2024.

With 16 electoral votes, the former Republican stronghold has shifted its interest to the Democrats due to its growing urban population and increasing voter turnout among minority groups.

The ongoing demographic shifts, particularly in suburban areas around Atlanta, and increased political engagement among younger voters, make Georgia a critical state to watch.